The Tesla Model S sets a new record, and Mercedes’ entry-level electric sedan does not disappoint. The number of models offering a winter range of 400 km (250 miles) or more keeps growing.

^{BYD Han. Photo: BYD}

A lot of useful data on EVs comes from Norway, where the vast majority of new cars and SUVs sold are all-electric. The Norwegian car association NAF regularly performs range tests of electric vehicles, usually twice a year – winter and summer.

And the results from the latest round of testing – winter 2023 – are just in.

First some commentary about this year’s results, then the results.

Sedans score top spots

This year’s theme seems to be “electric sedans” – although maybe it seems so because it was mostly sedans that scored top results (there is also a lot of crossovers further down the list).

To me, one of the most interesting models tested was the Mercedes EQE 300 sedan. An entry-level variant of the EQE (which is the EQS’ smaller sibling), and – sort of – an electric Mercedes for the masses.

There are more Chinese vehicles than usual, including two long-range sedans: the Nio ET7 and the BYD Han. Finally, a range test of the BYD Han performed in Europe.

There is also the BYD Atto 3 crossover, the MG4 crossover/hatchback, and the JAC e-S4. All of them much more pricey than in the Chinese market, all of them still cheap by European standards.

The Model 3 was not tested, so far, this year, but it was tested a year ago. Also, there are also no fresh results for the Ford Mustang Mach-E – only those from two years ago when the Mach-E scored great results but the temperatures were higher.

Cold weather – but not extremely cold weather

To me, it looks like this test was closer to the best-case scenario than to the worst-case scenario of winter driving. First, because it was conducted at relatively low speeds: no driving at Autobahn speeds (there are no places in Norway where such speeds would be legal anyway), and lots of city driving and country road driving in the mix.

Second, the temperatures. These tests were done in Norway, in the winter. But this does not mean they were done in the extreme cold.

Winters in Norway are not as cold as most people imagine.

In those parts of Norway where most of the population lives, winters are actually quite mild. Especially compared to certain parts of North America: drivers in North Dakota, Quebec or Canadian Prairies – and that includes major cities there – will usually experience winter temperatures much colder than in the Norwegian capital Oslo.

The temperatures during those Norwegian winter tests – they include driving in the mountains, so at higher altitudes – are normally from 0 °C to -10 °C (that is 32 °F to 14 °F). And a year ago, they were within this range. This time, it was colder than usual, from 0 °C to – reportedly, at one point – about -19 °C; that is 32 °F to -2 °F.

As I understand those vehicles were driven until they ran out of power completely, and not just until they reported zero range or 0% battery remaining.

The results

I added the results for vehicles tested a year ago (winter 2022), for comparison. Those old results are marked with * and written in italics.

1. Tesla Model S Standard	530 km	329 miles
2. Tesla Model 3 LR*	521 km	324 miles
3. Mercedes EQS 580 4MATIC*	513 km	319 miles
4. BMW iX xDrive50*	503 km	313 miles
5. Tesla Model Y LR AWD*	451 km	280 miles
6. Tesla Model X Plaid	444 km	276 miles
7. Volkswagen ID.3 Pro S*	435 km	270 miles
8. BMW i4 eDrive40	434 km	270 miles
8. NIO ET7	434 km	270 miles
10. Kia EV6 RWD*	429 km	267 miles
11. Kia EV6 AWD*	428 km	266 miles
12. NIO ES8*	425 km	264 miles
13. BMW i7 xDrive60	424 km	263 miles
14. Volkswagen ID.4*	414 km	257 miles
15. Mercedes EQE 300	409 km	254 miles
16. Hyundai Ioniq 5 RWD*	408 km	254 miles
17. BMW i4 M50*	406 km	252 miles
17. BYD Han	406 km	252 miles
19. Skoda Enyaq iV80X* (actually iV80?)	403 km	250 miles
20. Porsche Taycan 4 Cross Turismo*	402 km	250 miles
21. Nissan Ariya 2WD	400 km	249 miles
21. Polestar 2 LR Single Motor*	400 km	249 miles
23. Audi e-tron GT*	392 km	244 miles
24. Voyah Free	391 km	243 miles
25. Hongqi E-HS9 prototype 120 kWh	389 km	242 miles
26. XPeng P7*	383 km	238 miles
27. Audi Q4 e-tron 40*	380 km	236 miles
28. Volkswagen ID.5 Pro	378 km	235 miles
29. Hyundai Ioniq 5 AWD*	369 km	229 miles
30. BYD Tang*	356 km	221 miles
31. Volkswagen ID.4 GTX*	353 km	219 miles
32. MG ZS Long Range	352 km	219 miles
33. Kia EV6 GT	349 km	217 miles
34. Audi Q4 e-tron 50 quattro*	347 km	216 miles
34. Skoda Enyaq iV80* (actually iV80X?)	347 km	216 miles
36. Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus*	346 km	215 miles
37. Hyundai Ioniq 5 AWD	345 km	214 miles
38. Kia Niro EV	343 km	213 miles
39. Polestar 2 LR AWD*	340 km	211 miles
40. Cupra Born*	339 km	211 miles
41. MG 4	338 km	210 miles
41. Skoda Enyaq Coupe RS	338 km	210 miles
43. BMW iX1	337 km	209 miles
43. Tesla Model Y RWD	337 km	209 miles
45. Mercedes EQB 250	334 km	208 miles
46. Volvo C40 Recharge*	333 km	207 miles
47. Mercedes EQA 250*	331 km	206 miles
48. JAC e-JS4	323 km	201 miles
48. Toyota BZ4X FWD	323 km	201 miles
50. Renault Megane E-Tech Electric	318 km	198 miles
51. Maxus Euniq6	317 km	197 miles
52. Mercedes EQB 350 4MATIC*	315 km	196 miles
53. MG 5	313 km	194 miles
54. BYD Atto 3	311 km	193 miles
55. Volkswagen ID.BUZZ	310 km	193 miles
56. BMW iX xDrive40*	309 km	192 miles
57. MG Marvel R	308 km	191 miles
58. Hongqi E-HS9	303 km	188 miles
59. Opel Mokka-e*	263 km	163 miles
60. Peugeot e-2008*	228 km	142 miles

I wonder if the results for the Skoda Enyaq iV80X (AWD) and the Skoda Enyaq iV80 (RWD) were inadvertently swapped, because now it looks like the AWD variant has much better range than RWD (you would expect the opposite).

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Sources: [1][2][3]

Production rate is still nowhere near the demand, and wait times are discouraging.

^{Ford F-150 Lightning. Photo: Anastasia Shevchenko}

So electric pickup trucks are now a reality. Not that it’s easy to buy one: all models currently available in the U.S. – all three of them – have really long backlogs of orders. Example: in the case of the F-150 Lightning, reservations were halted more than a year ago as Ford received 200,000 of them – and they remain halted.

In such a market, sales of electric pickup trucks were in the range of 13,000–14,000 units; that’s during the last quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022) only.

Out of roughly 724,000 pickup trucks sold in the U.S. during Q4 2022, some 2% (1.86% to be more exact) were all-electric.

2% does not sound like much, but let’s keep in mind that: A) production is still in the ramp-up phase (and needs to increase significantly to match the current demand), B) the range of available models is still very small, and C) Tesla is still absent from this market segment altogether (for now).

For comparison, the estimated market share of all-electrics among all light vehicles (cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, others) sold in the U.S. during the same quarter was 6.4%. The majority of that 6.4% were Teslas.

This is based on a compilation of reports from Cox Automotive – they indicate about 3,526,000 light vehicles sold in Q4 2022, 226,789 of which were all-electric and 131,574 were Teslas.

Hm. So non-Tesla BEVs were some 2.5–3.0% of the entire light vehicle market. Also, non-Tesla BEVs were about 2% of the pickup truck market. It would be tempting to write something about how the demand for EVs is pretty much the same in all market segments.

Except that wouldn’t be right. At this point, electric pickup trucks are in such short supply that their sales are absolutely no indication of the actual demand. Only when production ramps up – only then we might get a better picture of the popularity of electric pickup trucks compared to electric cars or SUVs. Right now, customers are just unable to get what they want.

Pickup trucks are great EV material, because they can easily accommodate large (and heavy) battery packs. Even when they weren’t designed from the ground up as electric vehicles. GM and Ford knew that when they released their pioneering electric trucks – the S-10 EV and the Ranger EV, respectively – in the 1990s.

Here’s a random fact: no electric pickup truck currently available in the U.S. has a bed as long (6 ft) as those electric trucks from the 1990s. But then, the S-10 EV and the Ranger EV were regular cab, two-door pickup trucks. Today’s electric pickup trucks are four-door luxury vehicles.

Now, some more forward-thinking U.S. manufacturers might even have the European market in mind, a market which puts tighter constraints on vehicle length. Why would they care about the European market? Maybe because of the Chinese competition: SAIC Maxus is already preparing to ship an electric pickup truck (the T90 EV) to Europe.

Anyway, here’s the breakdown of electric pickup sales in the U.S. in Q4 2022.

GMC Hummer EV – 72 units in Q4 2022

854 trucks sold during 2022. But only 72 of them during the last quarter.

Looking at the figures published by GM Authority, it seems that production was much higher that deliveries. While production remained low during the summer, this is long over and in October and November, GM was making 1,000 or more Hummers per month. Then, in late November, production was halted at Factory Zero because it needed upgrades - the upcoming Silverado EV/Sierra EV is going to be made at the same facility.

I thought it might have something to do with the recall and stop-sale order announced in October (but the Cadillac Lyric was not recalled, and it also shows this “production much higher than deliveries” pattern; can it be some sort of test production, or is GM building up inventory?).

Recall or not, even those who can afford a Hummer EV cannot order one right now. General Motors stopped taking new orders back in September; apparently they had too many reservations. Later, the vice president of the GMC brand said the truck is “sold out for two years or more”.

Rivian R1T – 6,524 units in Q4 2022 (estimated)

Rivian came close to meeting its target of 25,000 vehicles manufactured in 2022; they made 24,337 of them.

Sales were lower than production, at 20,332 units sold during the whole year and 8,054 during the last quarter.

Rivian has not disclosed (so far) how many of those were R1T trucks, but Cox Automotive guessed 17,426 units sold during the whole year and 6,524 during the last quarter.

Ford F-150 Lightning – 6,857 units in Q4 2022

15,617 trucks sold during 2022, out of which 6,857 during the last quarter (and this is official, not just an estimate).

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Sources: [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]

Note: the total number of pickup trucks sold in the U.S. in Q4 2022 was estimated by adding 538,535 (full-size pickup trucks incl. F-150 Lightning) + 136,590 (midsize pickup trucks) + 10,450 (Honda Ridgeline) + 22,568 (Ford Maverick) + 9,677 (Hyundai Santa Cruz) + 6,525 (Rivian R1T, estimated) + 72 (Hummer EV). This includes heavy trucks, although they are a small fraction of the total.

36% market share – BEVs are 25.4%, PHEVs are 10.5% – according to data from the government agency RVO. The bestsellers are SUVs made in Czechia, China and Belgium.

^{Skoda Enyaq. Photo not taken in the Netherlands. Photo: IGEMBB (@SteveundJulian) on YouTube}

November was a good month for plug-in electric vehicles in the world’s largest car market (China) and also in Europe’s largest car market (Germany). In both of those, the market share of plug-ins – among passenger vehicles – exceeded 35%. In the case of China, this is based on retail figures from the CPCA, China Passenger Car Association.

And what about the Netherlands? Plug-in vehicles were about 36% of the total passenger vehicle market in November. BEVs were 25.4% (6,940 units sold) while PHEVs were 10.5% (2,869 units sold).

Also, good and steady sales of plug-in vehicles throughout the year brought the year-to-date plug-in market share to an impressive 33%.

Chinese SUV rules the PHEV market

The best-selling PHEV in the Dutch market in November – selling better than any BEV – is the Lynk & Co 01.

For several months (August, September, October), that model has been topping the plug-in sales charts in the Netherlands. A huge success for the Chinese brand.

But did it keep the title of the best-selling plug-in vehicle in November too? Well… it depends whether you’re counting the BEV and PHEV variants of the same model together. Because the two plug-in variants of the Volvo XC40, counted together (479 units of the BEVs variant + 140 units of the PHEVs variant = 619 units), outsold the Chinese plug-in hybrid (614 units) by a narrow margin.

That’s assuming the data from the RVO is complete. Also, the Volvo C40 is counted as a separate model even though it’s essentially a coupe variant of the XC40.

Both brands – Volvo and Lynk & Co – share the same owner, the Chinese automotive giant Geely. The Volvo XC40 has been difficult to buy this year – apparently its production in Ghent, Belgium was halted for some time. The unavailability of the European-made Volvo was a big chance for the Chinese-made Lynk & Co 01 to fill its shoes (even if the Chinese vehicle is only available as a PHEV, with no BEV variant).

In Sweden, Volvo’s homeland, deliveries of the XC40 plummeted – more so than in the Netherlands – but prospective buyers of the XC40 PHEV/BEV did not rush to buy the Chinese SUV instead; it just kept selling in about 100–200 units each month.

In the Netherlands, however, the Chinese SUV became a hit.

And among BEVs, the first place in November goes to the Czech-made Skoda Enyaq. The Volvo XC40 BEV took the 2nd place (it kept appearing in monthly statistics throughout the second half of 2022 – sales of the BEV variant did not fall in the Netherlands as much as they did in Sweden).

Top 10 all-electrics (BEVs), November 2022:
1. Skoda Enyaq (521 units)
2. Volvo XC40 BEV (479 units)
3. Peugeot e-208 (371 units)
4. BMW i4 (306 units)
5. Volkswagen ID.4 (278 units)
6. Audi e-tron (260 units)
7. Kia e-Niro (242 units)
8. Kia EV6 (241 units)
9. Renault Megane E-Tech Electric (238 units)
10. Hyundai Ioniq 5 (221 units)

Top 10 PHEVs, November 2022:
1. Lynk & Co 01 PHEV (614 units)
2. Volvo XC40 PHEV (140 units)
3. Volkswagen Tiguan PHEV (129 units)
4. Volvo XC60 PHEV (124 units)
5. BMW 3 Series PHEV (113 units)
6. Peugeot 308 PHEV (111 units)
7. Mazda CX-60 PHEV (77 units)
8. Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross PHEV (68 units)
9. Kia Sportage PHEV (67 units)
10. Volvo XC90 PHEV (63 units)

The results year-to-date

The year-to-date plug-in market share among passenger vehicles is 33%. 58,854 BEVs (21.3% market share) and 32,270 PHEVs (11.7% market share) were sold so far this year.

Normally such an article would include a year-to-date model ranking. The problem is, I have very little data for PHEVs. Also, I’m mixing multiple data sources here – the figures for January-October come from EV Volumes (José Pontes) and RAI Vereniging, while the results for November come from the RVO (the Netherlands Enterprise Agency).

The best-selling PHEV year-to-date is the Lynk & Co 01, with what looks like 5,108 units sold.

The second place in the PHEV category possibly goes to the Volvo XC40 PHEV – using an estimate (because it’s an estimate only) provided by EV Volumes, we arrive at 2,607 units.

For BEVs, the situation is more clear:

1. Skoda Enyaq (4,968 units)
2. Peugeot e-208 (3,409 units)
3. Kia e-Niro (3,034 units)

And if the estimates for the Volvo XC40 PHEV are any good, the combined year-to-date sales of the PHEV and BEV variants of the XC40 are somewhere around 5,000–5,100 units; so, in the same range as the Enyaq or the Lynk & Co 01 PHEV.

Teslas are weirdly absent from the year-to-date ranking; you would need to scroll further down the list to find the Model Y. We will see if the usual surge of BEV sales, which happens in the Dutch market in December, happens this year too (and if so, how many of those BEVs turn out to be Teslas).

A few words about the Dutch plug-in vehicle fleet

There are now about 500,000 plug-in passenger vehicles on Dutch roads. 316,465 BEVs and 183,315 PHEVs. Together they constitute about 5.6% of all passenger vehicles in the Netherlands.

The most common one is still the Tesla Model 3: about 42,300 cars.

Note: Most of the data in the article is based on figures published by the RVO, which show about 27,300 passenger vehicles registered in November. For comparison, figures from RAI Vereniging indicate about 27,800 passenger vehicles registered in November.
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Sources: [1][2][3][4]

Apparently it helps that all-electric Volvos, coming from a Belgian factory, are no longer supply constrained. At least not in Sweden. In November 2022, all-electric vehicles (BEVs) were 42% of the total market, PHEVs were 22%, plug-in vehicles overall reached 65%. And the Swedish vehicle market is starting to look much like the Norwegian one.

^{Volvo XC40. Photo not taken in Sweden. Photo: Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz}

Do I see 40%? Looking at the stats at one website which provides real-time registration data, I was wondering if the market share of all-electrics in Sweden would exceed 40%.

That would be big news, because you normally don’t see such results in any country except Norway.

But it happened. The market share of BEVs ended up at 42.47%.

Another interesting statistic is that merely 35% of vehicles sold in Sweden cannot be charged from a charging station or a wall socket.

Belgian factory resumed production

Sales of the all-electric Volvo XC40 basically slowed to a halt during the summer. The Belgian factory where they are made was idle because (at least that’s the official reason) it had to be retooled for the production of the new variant of the XC40 – a cheaper, single-motor variant. Which is now finally reaching customers, and it shows in the results for both October and November.

No all-electric cars or SUVs are made in Sweden. So the XC40 is probably the closest thing to a Swedish BEV that a Swedish person can buy. The Polestar 2 is made in China. Both Polestar and Volvo Cars have the same Chinese owner, Geely (it’s only Volvo Trucks that remains a Swedish-owned company).

In November, sales of the all-electric XC40 in Sweden reached record levels. Over 2,000 units of the all-electric XC40 and its C40 “coupe SUV” sibling (counted together) were sold; that was about 1/5 of the all-electric vehicle market.

MG: the budget brand is more popular in Sweden than in Norway

Some of the major players in the Swedish BEV market are Volvo, Volkswagen, Tesla, MG and Hyundai-Kia. What is MG doing there?

Well, it’s doing what it’s expected to do – it’s selling electric vehicles that are generally more affordable than the competition. Recent tests of the long-range variant of the MG ZS EV, done by Bjørn Nyland in the neighboring Norway (in mildly cold weather, but not extremely cold weather), yielded some interesting results, with the model delivering decent range and clocking a pretty good time in the “1000 km challenge”: the MG was able to cover that distance in a shorter time than some much more expensive models.
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Source: mobilitysweden.se

The results of the latest tests are surprising, to say the least. The European-spec AWD variant of the bZ4X/Solterra appears to charge fast – much faster than the American one. However, its range disappoints.

^{Toyota bZ4X. Photo taken in the United States. Photo: Gold Pony}

This month, some interesting tests of the all-electric Toyota bZ4X appeared in the Norwegian media. One of them was published by Motor.no. They had driven the bZ4X before, during a media event in Copenhagen in June – and rated it 77/100, not a bad result – but now they got to test it in Norway.

The Japanese SUV did not have the easiest start. In late April, there were reports from the U.S. about slow charging times. On top of that, there was an announcement, by Toyota, that charging might slow down significantly in below-freezing temperatures. In both cases, it was the U.S. specification AWD variant that was causing trouble.

Then came the much-publicized wheel bolts issue, and a stop-sale order. Because of this delay, these Norwegian tests are not done in the middle of the Norwegian summer; they are done in November.

It looks like bad news for Toyota: their EV is getting tested in temperatures it seemingly does not like – and might not make a good first impression in one of the world’s most important EV markets. And first impressions are important.

Well, the vehicle’s range in cold temperatures is a disappointment, at least when compared to the official figures. In this respect, Motor.no‘s results are not that different from those reported by Elbil24, which did a full range test and criticized Toyota not just for the low range of their vehicle, but also for – among other things – not being straightforward about its battery capacity. Elbil24 says the net capacity is 60-62 kWh.

The charging speeds, on the other hand, seem to be solid. Sure, not as good as those offered by some of the Korean competitors, but still not bad for an electric vehicle debuting in 2022.

So, exactly how fast does it charge?

This time, two vehicles were tested by motor.no: the AWD variant of the Toyota and the AWD variant (the only variant) of its Subaru twin. Both of them European-spec.

The U.S.-spec AWD variant is supposed to charge at 100 kW tops. But in the Norwegian test, both vehicles reported peak charging speeds above 100 kW.

Probably because of a different cell supplier. In the United States, the AWD and FWD variants differ in battery capacity – and in the AWD variant, the cells come from the Chinese company CATL, not from Panasonic. In Europe, the official battery capacity is the same in AWD and FWD variants, and presumably both of them use cells from the same supplier, Panasonic.

November temperatures didn’t necessarily work against the Toyota when it comes to charging speeds. First, the temperatures during the test were not exactly frigid: 8 to 5 degrees Celsius, that’s 46 to 41 Fahrenheit. And second, charging did not start with a cold battery: both vehicles did a lot of driving (so the battery had plenty of time to warm up) before they were plugged in.

So here are the measured charging times:
• Subaru: 6% to 80% in 38 minutes
• Toyota: 6% to 80% in 36 minutes

Better than the U.S.-spec AWD model – and not much different from the FWD variant.

Trying to estimate the range

Keep in mind that Motor.no didn’t do a true range test.

For that, you would need to charge to 100% and drive until reaching 0%. And Elbil24 did exactly that (driving until the vehicle reported zero range, not until it actually stopped running); the result was 307 km (191 mi) during the first run, 318 km (198 mi) during the second run.

Back to Motor.no’s test. As mentioned, the temperatures during the test were 8 to 5 degrees Celsius (46 to 41 Fahrenheit). HVAC was on and set to 20 °C (68 °F).

Neither of the two vehicles displays the battery state of charge on the dashboard – only the estimated range. If you want to know the state of charge, you need to read it in an app. And here’s the thing: in the case of the Toyota, the app did not work – it could not connect to the vehicle at all, so we don’t know what the battery percentage was at the beginning of the test (apparently it started working later on, otherwise how would the journalists know that charging started at 6% and ended at 80%?).

Let’s focus on the Subaru then. The app reported 54% at the beginning of the test. 149 kilometers (93 mi) later, the app reported 6%.

That would indicate a total range of 310 km (192 mi).

But at the same time, the energy consumption displayed on the vehicle’s screen was 248 Wh/km or 399 Wh/mi. That would indicate a total range of 288 km (179 miles) but that’s assuming the usable battery capacity is 71.4 kWh, while Elbil24’s tests indicate that the usable capacity is lower.

Maybe the energy consumption displayed on the screen is simply wrong.

No matter whether the actual range is 310 km (192 mi) or less than that, it is kind of low. Even on 20-inch wheels and winter tires – and that’s what the test vehicle was equipped with – the Solterra’s range should be 416 km (258 mi), according to Subaru (WLTP cycle, and not taking cold weather into account).

And was the vehicle’s low range caused by cabin heating being on? The vehicle’s range estimator wants you to think so – the estimated range dropped a lot (quite a lot, and it wasn’t freezing outside) the moment HVAC was turned on. But no complete range test was done with HVAC off – so at the moment it’s impossible to tell whether the range with HVAC off would be as good as the range estimator indicated.

And to complicate things further…

The results obtained for the Toyota are clouding the picture even more. As a reminder, the battery state of charge could not be read – we’re going on energy consumption readouts only.

The Toyota (AWD and on winter tires) was equipped with 18-inch wheels. That should have resulted in lower energy consumption than in the Subaru.

Nope.

The Toyota was even more power hungry than the Subaru, at 272 Wh/km or 438 Wh/mi. At least that’s what was displayed on the vehicle’s screen. One detail that might matter, the Toyota apparently spent more time driving on the highway (in the final phase of the test or overall?) than the Subaru, and its battery got warmer. But it’s a Norwegian highway, with low speed limits anyway.

But then the Toyota was retested. Different, and longer, route. HVAC set to a temperature almost the same as before. This time, the outside temperature was somewhere between 11 and 14 °C (52–57 °F). The reported energy consumption was 190 Wh/km or 306 Wh/mi. Much lower than before.

A lot of data, and hard to reach any definitive conclusions. More study recommended.

___

Sources: [1][2]

A very rough estimate, based on incomplete data, is that some 10% of cars and light trucks sold on this planet last quarter were pure electric vehicles.

^{Tesla Model Y. Photo taken in California. Credit: Juan Carlos LTO}

In 2019 Australian prime minister Scott Morrison famously proclaimed that his political opponent wants to “end the weekend”.

It was said shortly before elections, and in the context of the rival’s policy on electric vehicles.

Morrison emphasized how Australians love 4WD vehicles and SUVs, and said how his opponent wants to deprive Australians of the possibility of buying such vehicles, and make them buy electric cars instead, and an entry-level electric car is “not going to tow your trailer […] not going to tow your boat […] not going to get you out to your favourite camping spot with your family”.

“Bill Shorten (then-leader of the opposing party) wants to end the weekend when it comes to his policy on electric vehicles where you’ve got Australians who love being out there in their four-wheel drives. He wants to say see you later to the SUV when it comes to the choices of Australians.”

By the way, Morrison’s party won those elections.

The situation right now

Well, now that it’s 2022, it’s much more difficult to treat SUVs and electric vehicles as two non-overlapping kingdoms. Especially when the Tesla Model Y (an SUV… at least nominally) is on track to become the best-selling EV of the year worldwide.

And when it comes to pickup trucks (the Australian term is utes), which usually have more off-road genes than SUVs – Rivian and Ford, and not only them, have already started shipping all-electric ones.

Also, it’s more and more difficult to treat electric vehicles as some novel idea that maybe will catch on.

If the global market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among light vehicles was really anywhere around 10% last quarter (that’s excluding plug-in hybrids, which are usually included in statistics for EVs), then we’re already past the so-called “EV tipping point” that analysts once predicted to be at 5%.

That future in which electric vehicles are supposed to become popular? We are already living in it.

Not just for fans

The catchphrase about “ruining the weekend” (that seems to be the more popular version), used ironically, apparently became a favorite among EV fans in Australia.

Just to quote an article on thedriven.io about a Facebook group titled (of course) I ruined the weekend:

^{Photo: Sam Blight}

Sam Blight took a casual drive and ruined a whole afternoon in his Kona Electric: “Afternoon ruin out to Yennyenning Lakes which are full this year after good rain.”

Ant Day, who started the group, took a 1,500km [930-mile] trip to Esperance, ruining a three-day weekend with a visit to Edge of the Bay festival and along the way was horrified by some lovely wildflowers, then visiting some very nice beaches.

And a lot has changed since 2019, when Australian buyers looking for an EV didn’t have that many options to choose from. The Model Y is quite popular now (isn’t it boring how that model appears in almost every EV ranking, no matter which country you pick?), taking on the Mazda CX-5 and the Toyota RAV4.

What’s important is that electric vehicles are no longer just an option for people who specifically want an EV. They are an appealing option for car, or SUV, buyers in general. What was that expression the British Top Gear magazine used when reviewing the Megane E-Tech? Conventionally desirable. You don’t need to be an EV fan to buy an EV.

What is the market share? Well, in the third quarter of 2022, some 4.4% of all vehicles sold in Australia were all-electric. If you want to cherry-pick, September was an especially good month for all-electrics, with a 7.7% market share. The overwhelming majority of these sales are Teslas.

The lack of all-electric utes (all-electric pickup trucks) in the Australian market remains a problem, though. Another example of how Australia is at the back end of the queue when it comes to debuts of new EV models is the Volkswagen ID.4: not exactly a new model in Europe or the U.S., but not available in Australia yet.

Quietly electric

There are so many countries where the BEV market is booming right now. China is driving the global figures up: from July through September, more than 21% of passenger vehicle sales in the country were all-electric.

But I’m going to write about the Korean market, and a certain Korean brand, instead.

In September, pure electric vehicles outsold hybrids in South Korea - for the first time. That moment came surprisingly late, given that South Korea is a powerhouse when it comes to manufacturing EVs and their batteries. But a lot of EVs made in South Korea are exported. And exports of the Kia EV6 and the Ioniq 5 – especially the Ioniq 5 – to Europe are still not keeping up with the demand.

Hyundai-Kia’s big selling point is a battery pack that charges from 10% to 80% in just 18 minutes; it’s already used in vehicles sold in Europe and in North America. But a certain SUV using that technology has been reserved for the Korean market so far.

^{Genesis Electrified GV70. Photo: Damian B Oh}

Remember when Korean cars and SUVs were cheap? I do (and I remember how the German automotive press hated them for it). Today, offering affordable vehicles is considered a terrible mistake, one that more and more manufacturers are trying to avoid. The Genesis Electrified GV70 is not cheap. Marketed under Hyundai-Kia’s premium brand, that SUV has no twin model that would be sold under some cheaper brand.

So far it has only been sold in Korea – but that’s going to change soon. Deliveries in Europe are expected to start just about now. Additionally, a factory in Alabama is expected to start delivering vehicles for the American market.

The Electrified GV70 does not look that different from its combustion-engine counterpart. The same can be said about the Genesis Electrified G80, an ostentatious, presidential-looking sedan.

Unlike Teslas, these vehicles are clearly downplaying their all-electric nature. They are luxury vehicles that just happen to be electric.

Japan’s tiny EV

Things might be changing – slowly – even in Japan, a country known for a low market share of all-electrics (ordinary hybrids are super popular, though).

The Nissan Sakura, introduced this year, is an electric kei car equipped with a 20-kWh battery. Certainly not a long-range electric vehicle.

^{Photo: Hideyuki Nakano, response.jp}

But Nissan’s car that is turning out to be kind of popular in Japan. Together with its Mitsubishi eK X EV twin, it sold in over 13,000 units last quarter, and held a 1.6% share of the market. That’s not the share of the BEV market; it’s the share of the entire passenger vehicle market.

Overall, all-electric vehicles are just 2-3% of the passenger vehicle market in Japan – so Nissan/Mitsubishi’s tiny EVs must account for the majority of those sales.

It’s quite affordable for an EV. And – of course – it’s not available in Europe. There is a risk it would be selling too well.

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The numbers

China: 1,215,155* 
European Union, EFTA and UK: 355,000*
United States: 205,682
South Korea: 49,631**
Japan: 21,100*
India: 13,054**
Australia: 12,047**
* not including light commercial vehicles
** might include heavy commercial vehicles

The estimate for the global market of light vehicles (all kinds of powertrains) is 19,274,000 units.
All data is for Q3 2022.

Sources: China[1][2][3][4][5][6], European Union, EFTA and UK[7][8][9][10][11], United States[12], South Korea[13][14], Japan[15][16][17], India[18], Australia[19][20][21][22], estimates for the global light vehicle market[23].

Students from the University of Stuttgart built an electric car. And no, it’s not some ultralight vehicle designed to win an eco-marathon. It is a racetrack machine designed to leave practically all motorcycles – and practically all production cars – in the dust.

^{GreenTeam’s car. Photo: GreenTeam Uni Stuttgart}

There are certain vehicles that GreenTeam’s car simply cannot compete with. Dragsters. Rocket sleds. Jet-powered and rocket-powered cars. Hovever, the Stuttgart-based team’s all-electric creation easily outruns Lamborghinis, Ferraris, Porsches and Formula 1 cars.

It has just set a Guinness World Record for the fastest-accelerating electric car. The 0-62 mph (0-100 km/h) time is about 1.46 seconds. Well, 1.461 to be exact.

The vehicle, designated E0711-11 EVO, competes in Formula SAE/Formula Student (yes, a vehicle built for student contests accelerates faster than an actual Formula 1 machine). For the Guinness World Record attempt, the vehicle apparently lost its huge rear wing it previously had.

Performance through light weight

The vehicle has four in-wheel electric motors. According to the team’s website, they are putting out 210 hp (156.4 kW) – but apparently, in the vehicle used for the world record attempt, it was beefed up to 241 hp (180 kW).

Does not seem much? Well, the weight of the carbon-fiber-bodied car is 173 kg (381 lb), and for the world record attempt it was reduced even further – Carscoops says the weight is 145 kg or 320 lb.

Which means the power-to-weight ratio is astounding (I think the fact that the vehicle is electric also plays a role – an ICE car probably wouldn’t have achieved such results with the same power-to-weight ratio).

That obviously brings to mind Lotus cars with their “performance through light weight” design. For Germans, it probably evokes the memories of the Bergspyder. The Bergspyder, developed by Porsche in the late 1960s, was a machine competing in hill climbing races, and had its weight reduced to the minimum.

There is yet another way to look at it: it’s a slighly oversized go-kart – an electric one, and with an extremely high power output. Although in the Guinness World Record run it only demonstrated its straight-line acceleration, so that result alone does not indicate whether the vehicle’s handling is truly go-kart-like.

See the Guinness World Record attempt video here.

The battery size is only 7 or 8 kWh (according to the team’s website), which partially explains the low weight. For a racing machine that lasts longer on the track, you might want to look up the Ariel Hipercar.

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Sources: [1][2]

Some German cities have already accumulated sizable numbers of EVs.

^{Frankfurt. Photo: Matthias Konrath}

Replacing ICE cars with electric vehicles is a slow process.

Just because electric vehicles are selling well doesn’t mean they constitute a large part of the overall vehicle fleet. Cars (and trucks) have a long service life. And what you see on the road is a reflection of how the auto market looked like years ago – not how it looks like right now.

So it takes years before high sales of EVs translate into a reasonably high proportion of EVs on the road.

Example: in Germany, the market share of electric vehicles (BEVs+PHEVs) exceeds 30% in some months. The share of such vehicles in the German passenger vehicle fleet, however, is more like 3%.

Just to be clear, in this article, the “vehicle fleet” means all the vehicles that are there. It has the same meaning as the term “the total number of vehicles on the road”.

3% for BEVs+PHEVs. 1.6% for BEVs only (at the end of H1 2022). But in some cities, including Frankfurt and Stuttgart, it’s considerably more than that.

Before we get to discussing Frankfurt and Stuttgart (or you can just scroll down to the part about Frankfurt and Stuttgart), an explanation why there are such disparities between different parts of Germany.

The EV share of the market does not vary that much state to state…

In the United States, it’s easy to point out which states have a high EV market share – California definitely stands out.

Compared to the United States, Germany looks like a monolith. When it comes to EV market share, differences between states are quite small.

But the EV share of the fleet varies a lot state to state

And yet, some German states have more than twice the percentage of EVs on the road (in their vehicle fleets) than others.

Maybe some states got on the EV bandwagon earlier than others? Actually, that’s not the most important reason. The real reason is something else:

The “turnover rate” of cars and SUVs varies a lot from state to state.

In some areas – especially those with thriving automotive industry, and in richer regions in general – customers treat cars and SUVs like single-use items. They buy or lease a brand new vehicle; and then, before the vehicle starts to look dated, they get rid of it and get a new one. In such areas, new car/SUV sales remain at a high level, and the existing fleet of vehicles is getting replaced quite quickly. In the state of Bavaria, 4-5% of the passenger vehicle fleet is 9 months old or less.

In other areas, customers are less likely to buy brand new vehicles. They buy used; or just keep their own vehicles longer. In the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, only 2-3% of the passenger vehicle fleet is 9 months old or less.

It’s not that people in areas like Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are significantly less likely to buy electric if they go to a car showroom. It’s just that they are less likely to go to a showroom at all. Which is why it will take longer for things that are common in car showrooms – like electric vehicles – to become common on the streets too.

(Yes I know that buying an all-electric vehicle in a showroom sound like an antiquated idea; in the explanation above, “car showroom” = new vehicle market.)

Frankfurt

^{Frankfurt. Photo: Epizentrum}

Frankfurt, with its skyscraper-packed center, is the financial capital of Germany; it is also home to the country’s largest airport. 7.0% of passenger vehicles registered in the city are plug-in electric. 3.1% are BEVs and 3.9% are PHEVs.

That is about 24,300 vehicles (plug-in electric), about 10,800 vehicles (BEVs) and about 13,500 vehicles (PHEVs), respectively.

Stuttgart

^{Stuttgart. Photo: Fanndian (edited by Pro2)}

Stuttgart hosts the headquarters of both Mercedes-Benz and Porsche (the latter might be more associated with the name Zuffenhausen, but Zuffenhausen is a district of Stuttgart). 7.5% of passenger vehicles registered in the city are plug-in electric. 3.2% are BEVs and 4.2% are PHEVs. These numbers don’t seem to add up, but it’s because of rounding.

That is about 22,400 vehicles (plug-in electric), about 9,700 vehicles (BEVs) and about 12,700 vehicles (PHEVs), respectively.

Both in Frankfurt and in Stuttgart, PHEVs outnumber BEVs. In Germany as a whole, it is the other way around – the fleet of all-electric vehicles is already larger than the fleet of PHEVs.

Did I mention that areas with thriving automobile industry, or just rich areas, have a higher vehicle “turnover rate”, which causes EVs to become common on the roads more quickly? Here are the top 5 German registration circuits – all of them happen to be cities – with the highest share of electric vehicles in their fleets. One map shows the statistics for all plug-in vehicles (BEVs+PHEVs); the other one, for BEVs only.

Wiesbaden

Wiesbaden, not very far from Frankfurt, has hot springs and a large U.S. Army garrison.

Importantly, Wiesbaden is the city with the highest share of plug-in vehicles in Germany (9.2%). Also, it is the city with the highest share of BEVs (5.2%). PHEVs are 4.0%.

The idea that it’s some small spa town would be wrong. Wiesbaden has some 200,000-300,000 people and a high car ownership rate (the number of vehicles per capita is higher than the state average, and much higher than in Franfurt). A lot of vehicles and a high proportion of them being all-electric mean than the number of BEVs – that’s BEVs only – in Wiesbaden actually exceeds 10,000.

Ingolstadt

Audi’s hometown also boasts more all-electric vehicles than PHEVs.

6.5% of passenger vehicles in Ingolstadt are plug-in electric. 3.8% are BEVs, 2.7% are PHEVs.

Wolfsburg and Brunswick

Wolfsburg is a name long associated with the automotive giant Volkswagen – which might create the impression that it’s a bigger city than it really is. In fact, Wolfsburg is home to about 125,000 people. But it did not even exist as a city before 1938, when the Nazi program of mass-producing a people’s car (the Beetle) started. For a company town, it’s quite large.

Brunswick is a bigger and older city which, for historical reasons, shares its name with many places in the Americas and in Australia (kind of like the English city of York does). And yes, Volkswagen also has its facilities in Brunswick.

In Wolfsburg, 7.3% of all passenger vehicles are plug-in electric. 3.1% are BEVs, 4.2% are PHEVs.

Brunswick seems to be more BEV-oriented. 6.2% of all passenger vehicles are plug-in electric; 4.4% are BEVs, 1.8% are PHEVs.
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Sources: KBA fleet data for the end of H1 2022 [1][2], KBA registration data [3][4]

The Tata Nexon EV crossover was selling remarkably well in H1 2022.

^{Tata Nexon EV. Photo: Ratopati TV}

In India, the market share of all-electrics (BEVs) among passenger vehicles is low. In the first half of the year, it was roughly 1%.

But the overwhelming majority of those sales are scored by just one brand: Tata. Basically, the Indian BEV market is even more Tata-centric than the American BEV market is Tesla-centric.

The name does not ring any bells? Well, Tata Motors happens to own 100% of Jaguar Land Rover (acquired in 2008), but the Tata brand itself was never popular in Europe – despite some forays into the European market; and in North America, it is practically unknown. In its home country, it’s different: Tata is a major, and long-established, player in the Indian passenger vehicle market.

And in the first half of 2022, about 7% of passenger vehicles sold by Tata in India were all-electric.

It’s just two all-electric models: the Tata Nexon EV crossover SUV (30.2 kWh or 40.5 kWh) and the Tata Tigor EV small sedan (26 kWh).

In the first half of the year, 13,280 units of the Nexon EV were sold – and 5,532 units of the Tigor EV (For comparison, in the first half of the previous year, these figures were merely 3,204 and 222, respectively). That sums up to 18,812 units, although Tata’s own monthly reports show 18,378.

The Nexon EV is the more interesting of the two models. It is still a small vehicle, about 4 m (157 inch) long. Front-wheel drive only, like most subcompact crossovers. The variant with a 40.5-kWh battery, designated “Max”, packs 143 hp, accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h (0-62 mph) in under 10 seconds, and has a top speed of 140 km/h or 87 mph.

That variant costs the equivalent of US$22,300.

The Nexon – the gasoline variant, not the electric one – scored 5 stars out of 5 in a Global NCAP crash test, a first for an Indian vehicle (as of 2022, it is no longer the only one with such a rating). But make no mistake, it still has only 2 airbags. And Global NCAP crash tests are much more lenient than the current Euro NCAP test procedure.

At the end of September, Tata unveiled a third model, the Tiago EV. The Tiago is a hatchback counterpart to the Tigor sedan. The EV variant is a vehicle with a 19.2-kWh battery selling for the equivalent of $10,350 (or a vehicle with a 24-kWh battery selling for $12,150). It is marketed as the most affordable EV in India.

And Tata’s competitor Mahindra is preparing an offensive of all-electric SUVs. The first one is the XUV400, with a roughly 40-kWh battery.

Where are Tesla and BYD?

Well, they are abroad – in the sense that they don’t make all-electric vehicles in India. And the Indian car market is prety tightly insulated from foreign imports. There are high import tariffs – 60% or 100%, depending on the value of the car.

Tesla is simply absent from the Indian market (although there are private imports), and BYD sells very small numbers of all-electric passenger vehicles each month.

Electric motorcycles are booming in India

Here’s a little fact about the Indian car market: every year, Indians buy about 10-20 times less cars and light trucks per capita than Americans, Germans or the French. It might have something to do with how India is not as rich as these countries.

This is partially (but only partially) compensated by huge sales of motorcycles and scooters. Here are the statistics for a certain period of 12 months (these are not statistics for the first half of the year):

• passenger vehicles: ~ 3 million
• commercial vehicles: ~ 0.7 million
• three-wheelers: ~ 0.3 million
• two-wheeled vehicles: ~ 13 million

Yes, 13 million motorcycles and scooters per year – compared to 3 million passenger vehicles.

And the sector of motorcycles and scooters is undergoing electrification: the market share of all-electric vehicles varied from 2.8% to 4.5% over the first six months of 2022 (excluding low-speed vehicles – so electric kick scooters are not inflating these statistics).

Some 400,000 “high-speed” electric motorcycles and scooters were sold in H1 2022, compared to some 20,000 electric passenger vehicles. You can see which type of vehicle is more popular.

Among three-wheelers (which are not included in the statistics for motorcycles and scooters), the share of all-electrics in H1 2022 was roughly 50%. Yes, about half of them. Although it’s half of a surprisingly small market – three-wheelers, though they are a common sight on roads, are not currently selling in India as well as you might think. As a result, two-wheeled electric motorcycles and scooters are actually outselling electric three wheelers.
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Sources: [1],[2],[3],[4]